The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 11 of the 2016-17 season don’t see the needle moving much after a big crossover stunt.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Vampire Diaries||Final season||0.37||0.17|
|Crazy Ex-Girlfriend||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.2||0.0|
|Frequency||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.31||0.11|
|No Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.31||0.11|
|Legends of Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.7||0.5|
|Arrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.75||0.55|
|Supernatural||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.66||0.46|
|Jane the Virgin||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.39||0.19|
|Supergirl||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.85||0.65|
|The Flash||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.15||0.95|
The CW successfully pulled off its four-show crossover last week, giving each of its DC Comics-based series a ratings jolt. “Supergirl,” “The Flash,” “Arrow” and “Legends of Tomorrow” all either tied or set season highs.
Finding a way to jack up the numbers, even if it’s just for a week as will most likely be the case here, is never a bad thing. But it also doesn’t change much for these shows, or The CW as a whole.
All four DC shows were likely (at the very least) to return anyway. Also, the increases for those four — all 8 o’clock shows — didn’t carry over to the next hour. “Jane the Virgin,” “No Tomorrow,” “Frequency” and “Supernatural” all put up ratings on par with their season averages, despite the bigger lead-ins.
The CW got a nice little bump to its overall average last week, but the outlook for its shows hasn’t budged.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.