Here are The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 11 of the 2017-18 season, which take a first-year show down a notch.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Crazy Ex-Girlfriend||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.2||0.0|
|Jane the Virgin||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.26||0.06|
|Dynasty||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.23||0.03|
|Arrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.52||0.32|
|Supernatural||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.6||0.4|
|Riverdale||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.58||0.38|
|Supergirl||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.54||0.34|
|Legends of Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.56||0.36|
|The Flash||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.91||0.71|
The Bear builds a presumption of renewal into predictions for CW series. So it is not without consideration that “Valor” is getting a downgrade to likely cancellation this week.
But while The CW renews the great majority of its shows each year, there’s also a template for the kind of show the network doesn’t keep around, and “Valor” fits it pretty well.
Like “Frequency” and “No Tomorrow” last season, “Valor” started with low numbers (lower than either of those fall 2016 shows, in fact) and stayed there. After premiering to a 0.3 rating in adults 18-49, six of its next seven episodes have come in at 0.2.
The CW is likely for reasons beyond U.S. ratings to keep “Dynasty” around; the show is presold across much of the world already. “Valor” doesn’t have that sort of deal in place. Thus its fate is likely to be that of “Frequency and “No Tomorrow” — allowed to play out its initial order, but likely not to be heard from again.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.