The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 12 of the 2016-17 season look at the state of the network as fall comes to a close.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Vampire Diaries||Final season||0.37||0.17|
|Crazy Ex-Girlfriend||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.2||0.0|
|Frequency||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.3||0.1|
|No Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.31||0.11|
|Legends of Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.7||0.5|
|Arrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.74||0.54|
|Supernatural||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.65||0.45|
|Jane the Virgin||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.39||0.19|
|Supergirl||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.85||0.65|
|The Flash||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.16||0.96|
Short answer: Probably not a lot. Even though very show that was on The CW last fall and is currently airing this fall has smaller ratings than a year ago, and a couple of the newcomers are well below the shows they replaced. The network can’t be super-happy with the state of things, but in terms of shows’ positions relative to each other, across-the-board declines mean the board is still level.
Those newcomers — “Frequency” and “No Tomorrow” — may not be in great shape, as they’re ending at 13 episodes each. They’re the first new fall shows on the network not to get a back order since 2012. “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” has doggedly refused to go below a 0.2 in adults 18-49 since moving to Friday, but it also hasn’t been above it all season.
But aside from “The Vampire Diaries,” which we already know is ending, the other veterans are probably all safe. The CW’s comic-book shows are its foundation now (and its four highest-rated shows), so they’re not going anywhere.
“Jane the Virgin” has the Third Season Rule in its favor and is about even with last season’s numbers (it’s off just a couple hundredths of a point), so it would likely be safe anyway. And “Supernatural” may not end till its stars are collecting Social Security.
None of this is to say The CW has had a good fall — there’s that thing about every returning show being down, remember? And while the network’s record of renewing nearly everything may take some hits this season, it’s still looking like a majority of its fall shows will return.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.