The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 21 of the 2016-17 season bump a new series up to likely renewal.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Vampire Diaries Final season 0.36 0.16
Reign Final season 0.2 0.0
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend Renewed 0.2 0.0
Frequency 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.28 0.08
No Tomorrow 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.28 0.08
The 100 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.4 0.2
Riverdale 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.47 0.27
Legends of Tomorrow Renewed 0.69 0.49
Arrow Renewed 0.71 0.51
Supernatural Renewed 0.64 0.44
Jane the Virgin Renewed 0.37 0.17
Supergirl Renewed 0.81 0.61
The Flash Renewed 1.13 0.93

 

“Riverdale” has shown more consistency in its early weeks than either “No Tomorrow” or “Frequency” did in the fall. That’s a big reason — but not the only one — the Bear is moving it up to a likely renewal.

Chief among the other reasons is that “Riverdale” counts among its executive producers Greg Berlanti, whose company currently makes literally half the network’s schedule (the four DC Comics shows along with this one). “Riverdale’s” ratings aren’t at the level of any of those, but they’re right in the middle of The CW’s roster for the season.

If it’s able to maintain those mid-pack numbers, given The CW’s tendency to renew most of its roster “Riverdale” should be joining the pack of already renewed series on the network next season.

Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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