The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 25 of the 2016-17 season downgrade a couple of shows.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Vampire Diaries||Final season||0.38||0.18|
|No Tomorrow||🐻 🐻||0.28||0.08|
|Legends of Tomorrow||Renewed||0.67||0.47|
|Jane the Virgin||Renewed||0.37||0.17|
The CW renewed “The 100” last week, meaning every show currently on the network has its fate decided: “The Vampire Diaries” ended Friday, “Reign” is in its final season and everything else is renewed.
The nine renewals, two veteran shows (“The Originals” and “iZombie”) still to come and the likelihood that the network will order two or three new series next season makes for a fairly crowded schedule, considering The CW only programs 10 hours a week.
It’s one that probably won’t have room for “Frequency” and “No Tomorrow,” the two weakly rated rookies that have already gone onto their second lives on Netflix. Their futures were likely dependent on whether shows that came after them performed worse. So far, none has. Thus they’re downgraded to likely cancellations.
The Bear doesn’t make this prediction lightly: In each of the past two seasons, only one CW scripted show (“Containment” last season and “The Messengers”) in 2015 has fallen after
its first season. But signs are pointing to both freshmen falling by the wayside.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.