The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 29 of the 2016-17 season bump two shows up to safe territory.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Vampire Diaries||Final season||0.38||0.18|
|No Tomorrow||🐻 🐻||0.28||0.08|
|The Originals||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.35||0.15|
|iZombie||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.4||0.2|
|Legends of Tomorrow||Renewed||0.64||0.44|
|Jane the Virgin||Renewed||0.36||0.16|
“iZombie” opened its third season below where it was last year — welcome to the club. But those smaller numbers probably won’t prevent the show from being renewed for a fourth year.
Similarly, “The Originals” is holding up fairly well on Friday nights, pulling in ratings very close to those of “The Vampire Diaries'” final season. That too should be enough to earn a pickup.
The CW’s pattern in recent years is to give shows that make it past the first season at least 60 episodes to make it into the streaming sweet spot. “iZombie” will have 45 episodes at season’s end, and “The Originals” will be close to 80. Both should get at least one more chance to add to that total.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.