The broadcast networks announce their 2017-18 schedules the week of May 15, so it’s time for the Bear’s last predictions for renewal or cancellation. Nearly every series still in limbo will know its fate by the end of this week.
This should come as no surprise: The Bear thinks both “The Originals” and “iZombie” have a decent chance to return next season. If only one should make it, the money would be on “iZombie,” but it’s likely both will be back.
The CW removed any tiny bit of lingering suspense about “Frequency” and “No Tomorrow” on Monday by officially dropping the hammer. The Status column for the remaining two shows will update as decisions are announced.
|Show||Renew/Cancel Index||Renewal chances||Status|
|The Originals||0.13||67%||Renewed 5/10|
Already renewed: “The 100,” “Arrow,” “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend,” “The Flash,” “Jane the Virgin,” “Legends of Tomorrow,” “Riverdale,” “Supergirl,” “Supernatural”
Already canceled/ended: “Frequency,” “No Tomorrow,” “Reign” (series finale June 16), “The Vampire Diaries”
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.