The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 4 of the 2016-17 season bring a bit of relief to the network’s otherwise gloomy picture.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Vampire Diaries Final season n/a n/a
Frequency 🐻🐻🐻 0.35 0.15
No Tomorrow 🐻🐻🐻 0.35 0.15
Legends of Tomorrow 🐻🐻🐻🐻 0.6 0.4
Arrow 🐻🐻🐻🐻 0.7 0.5
Supernatural 🐻🐻🐻🐻 0.8 0.6
Supergirl 🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻 1.1 0.9
The Flash 🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻 1.2 1.0
Jane the Virgin 🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻 n/a n/a

 

There hasn’t been a ton of good news in the early going for The CW this season. The “Supergirl” premiere was an exception.

The show tied “The Flash” for the top rating on the network last week with a 1.1 rating. That was nearly four times the 0.3 average The CW had last season with “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” and “Reign.”

It was also, predictably, a low mark for the show. “Supergirl’s” worst outing on CBS last season was a 1.3, and it averaged 1.7 for the season. So the premiere was a 35 percent drop from its Season 1 average.

The average CW scripted show last season, however, ran about 61 percent behind the average CBS scripted series (0.59 vs. 1.53). It’s ahead of the game for now, and with The CW’s renewal-happy culture, as long as it can stay above the network average it will remain safe.

“Jane the Virgin” will have an index number next week, but it’s a lock for renewal thanks to the Third Season Rule.

Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
😥 sure bet to be canceled by May 2016
😦😦 likely to be canceled by May 2016
😐😐😐 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016
🙂🙂🙂🙂 likely to be renewed by May 2016
😀😀😀😀😀 sure bet to be renewed by May 2016

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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