Here are The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 8 of the 2017-18 season. They see signs of wear on a flagship series.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Valor||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.23||0.03|
|Crazy Ex-Girlfriend||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.2||0.0|
|Jane the Virgin||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.25||0.05|
|Dynasty||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.23||0.03|
|Arrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.52||0.32|
|Supernatural||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.65||0.45|
|Riverdale||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.6||0.4|
|Supergirl||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.5||0.3|
|Legends of Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.5||0.3|
|The Flash||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.93||0.73|
The Bear will stipulate up front that “Arrow” is probably not going anywhere. It’s very unlikely The CW will pull the plug on its first DC Comics series this season.
The show is clearly showing some age as it plays out its sixth season. Ratings have dropped about 17 percent this season vs. last — and last season’s numbers were down 33 percent from the season before that. That is not a good trend line.
As the Bear said, there’s little reason to think “Arrow” is going anywhere in the near term. But its numbers suggest the show is clearly closer to the end of its life than it is to the beginning.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.