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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through December 4, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|A Gifted Man (F)||😳||0.38|
|Blue Bloods (F)||🙂🙂🙂🙂||0.56|
|The Good Wife||😐😐😐||0.62|
|How To Be A Gentleman||canceled||0.74|
|Person Of Interest||😐😐😐||0.83|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.04|
|Rules of Engagement||😐😐😐||1.08|
|Mike & Molly||1.27|
|How I Met Your Mother||renewed||1.36|
|2 Broke Girls||1.45|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.51|
|Two And A Half Men||1.87|
As it plays out its string of ordered episodes, commenters have been wondering what will take the place of the certain to be canceled A Gifted Man on Friday at 8pm. There are three likely answers.
- The 2-2 (a previously announced CBS mid-season drama) Edit: The show has been renamed NYC 22.
- An existing non-Friday drama. Moving another drama there would likely be its death knell (ala The Defenders last season). If that happens, The 2-2 would likely take the moved drama’s slot.
- Undercover Boss. CBS teased “more episodes and airdates” in yesterday’s UB press release, but there aren’t many more Sundays to fill before the likely mid-February return date of The Amazing Race. Friday at 8 is a potential location for those extra UB episodes.Presumably if that happens, The 2-2 may be an “end of season, likely doomed” drama like Chaos last year and fill in the slot at the end of the season.
What’s Your Guess?
After seeing seven CBS dramas in the “toss up” range (meaning somewhat equal chances for renewal and cancellation) the reading challenged have remarked “No way CBS cancels seven dramas!”. Of course they won’t, and that’s not what I’m predicting. CBS will likely cancel three dramas that are on their spring schedule to make room for new ones next season. Those three will come from the seven “toss up” shows (plus perhaps what takes AGM’s Friday slot). More on that later.
Rules of Engagement has had its season order shortened for this season. While it has the ratings for renewal, CBS sitcom success may not leave it room in the schedule next season unless CBS expands its sitcom hours. For that reason, it’s a “toss up” for renewal.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- 😐😐 :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- 🙂🙂🙂 :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.