Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-23, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|CSI:NY (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.55|
|Blue Bloods (Wed)||😐 😐 😐||0.66|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.73|
|CSI: Miami||😐 😐 😐||0.81|
|$#*! My Dad Says||😐 😐 😐||0.95|
|Criminal Minds||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.96|
|Hawaii Five-0||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.96|
|The Mentalist||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.98|
|Rules of Engagement||1.11|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.16|
|Mike & Molly||1.23|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.30|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.43|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed||1.54|
That thud you hear was the premiere of Blue Bloods in its temporary Wednesday 10pm timeslot with just a 2.0 adults 19-49 rating. Unless it boosts that in the weeks to come, it will be shuffled back to Friday, never to emerge again.
Good news for the The Good Wife though. With the pre-cancellation move of The Defenders to Friday at 8pm, it was set to assume the mantle of “worst rated non-Friday CBS show”. Now it looks to have a fighting chance to resist that, at least until Blue Bloods goes back to Friday’s.
CBS has for at least the last three seasons cancelled 4 hours of dramas so they could bring in new shows the following Fall. With Medium cancelled, and The Defenders certain to follow that still leaves two or more (considering mid-season 2011 replacements) hours of dramas that CBS will cancel if they hold to their typical pattern.
It’s likely that at least one of either CSI:NY or CSI:Miami will be cancelled, and perhaps both. Even though it’s ratings are near average, CBS has typically cancelled its lowest rated sitcom each season as well, and that puts $#*! My Dad Says in the “toss up” category.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.