Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCBSShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 9, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Made In Jersey (F)*||canceled||0.36|
|CSI:NY (F)||😥 😥||0.52|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.53|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.66|
|The Mentalist||😐 😐 😐||0.66|
|Elementary||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.89|
|Person Of Interest||1.10|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.11|
|Mike & Molly||1.14|
|How I Met Your Mother**||1.18|
|2 Broke Girls||1.31|
|Two And A Half Men**||1.43|
|Big Bang Theory||already renewed||1.92|
CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall since 2006-7. I’d expect them to do the same next Fall. So unless they have some schedule wizardry up their sleeves I haven’t seen before (holding back Undercover Boss won’t help!) they’ll need to cancel three of their Fall 2012 dramas to make room for three more next Fall. With Made In Jersey gone, and Vegas a likely cancellation, that means one more Fall drama had to go.
With most of the decision making criteria for that choice hidden from the public, the news last week that CSI:NY would end its season in February to make room for Golden Boy tips my prediction for it into “likely canceled”.
For the time being, I’m keeping both The Good Wife and The Mentalist as toss ups for renewal or cancellation. However unlikely it may be based on recent history (I believe The Unit in 2006 was the last CBS spring rookie to get a renewal), a renewal for Golden Boy would require another Fall 2012 drama to be canceled to make room for it in the Fall of 2013. I’ll wait to see its spring ratings before jumping to conclusions. Commenters may feel free to jump at their leisure.
Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods “certain to be renewed”? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the “magic” 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are “certain to be renewed” for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.