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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 20, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Made In Jersey (F)*||canceled||0.36|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.51|
|CSI:NY (F)||😥 😥||0.52|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.65|
|The Mentalist||😐 😐 😐||0.73|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.00|
|Person Of Interest||1.17|
|Mike & Molly||1.22|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.36|
|2 Broke Girls||1.43|
|Two And A Half Men**||1.52|
|The Big Bang Theory||renewed||2.19|
After two new episodes in 2013, Elementary’s relative ratings have picked up to the point where it’s now certain to be renewed. If its ratings plunge later in the season, the prediction will be adjusted, but expect to see it on CBS’ schedule next season.
Note to the nitpicky commenters, although its just about as certain as it gets, How I Met Your Mother has not yet been officially renewed.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the “old” Fall predictions in the table.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.