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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through November 13, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|A Gifted Man (F)||😳||0.37|
|Blue Bloods (F)||🙂🙂🙂🙂||0.56|
|The Good Wife||😐😐😐||0.62|
|How To Be A Gentleman||canceled||0.74|
|Person Of Interest||😐😐😐||0.83|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.05|
|Rules of Engagement||😐😐😐||1.06|
|Mike & Molly||1.25|
|How I Met Your Mother||renewed||1.34|
|2 Broke Girls||1.44|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.48|
|Two And A Half Men||1.91|
I thought last season was the season that one of the CSI shows would get canceled, and CBS instead pulled Undercover Boss off the schedule to give it another hour it could shoehorn another aging drama into its schedule.
In this case, once bitten is not twice shy, I think it’s likely, once again, that at least one of the CSI family gets canceled. Perhaps more than one. If current ratings were the only determinant, I think the original CSI has the best chance at renewal, and CSI: Miami and CSI:NY are about even. Sadly for my prediction purposes, it’s very likely that the syndication economics, completely hidden to us, will be the main determining factor on which of them stays and which goes.
The three additional episodes ordered for A Gifted Man this season are meaningless from a show renewal perspective. They’re just scheduling filler before a replacement show can take the timeslot. A Gifted Man is 100% dead.
Rules of Engagement has had its season order shortened for this season. While it has the ratings for renewal, CBS sitcom success may not leave it room in the schedule next season unless CBS expands its sitcom hours. For that reason, it’s now a “toss up” for renewal.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- 😐😐 :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- 🙂🙂🙂 :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.