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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 27, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Blue Bloods (F)||🙂🙂🙂🙂||0.60|
|The Good Wife||😐😐😐||0.63|
|Hawaii Five-0 (F)||🙂🙂🙂🙂||0.63|
|We Are Men*||canceled||0.74|
|Person Of Interest||0.90|
|Two And A Half Men||🙂🙂🙂🙂||0.98|
|Mike & Molly||1.04|
|The Crazy Ones||🙂🙂🙂🙂||1.06|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.11|
|2 Broke Girls||1.12|
|How I Met Your Mother||final season||1.35|
|The Big Bang Theory||2.28|
With We Are Men yanked after just two episodes, and How I Met Your Mother in its final season, the other three rookie CBS sitcoms all have a chance at a second season. The Millers ratings have stayed above CBS’s scripted ratings average, and Mom & The Crazy Ones ratings are close enough below that they would typically be renewed. Into that mix, there’s some chance that Two And A Half Men falls to the bear in May.
CBS could keep all four of those sitcoms, and still premiere two new sitcoms next Fall if they kept Mike & Molly in reserve to fill into the slot of the first failed rookie sitcom, like this season. Given the current ratings levels of those four shows, it’s at least conceivably possible all four get renewed. However, Spring often brings a bit more ratings movement which could separate the relative ratings of those four shows and cause some prediction changes.
Also, Two And A Half Men is in a blind spot of the bear’s predictive ability, an old, expensive show with otherwise passable ratings. More than a few of those shows have been consumed when the bear thought they’d escape.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
- 😐😐 :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
- 🙂🙂🙂 :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
- :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2014
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.