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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – April 27, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Blue Bloods (F)||renewed||0.65|
|The Good Wife||renewed||0.66|
|Hawaii Five-0 (F)||renewed||0.66|
|We Are Men*||canceled||0.74|
|The Crazy Ones*||😥 😥||0.80|
|Person Of Interest||renewed||0.85|
|Friends With Better Lives||😥 😥||0.92|
|Bad Teacher||summer show||0.95|
|Mike & Molly||renewed||0.97|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed||1.06|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||renewed||1.06|
|2 Broke Girls||renewed||1.15|
|How I Met Your Mother*||final season complete||1.55|
|The Big Bang Theory||renewed||2.30|
The weeks before the broadcast network upfront meetings are typically filled with hopeful stories about doomed shows in their death throes. Most are fueled by the show’s producers trying to get some PR juice to help them in their mostly futile quests to keep their shows going.
The many stories about The Mentalist being shopped to other networks should tell you two things. The producers (Warner Brothers) know CBS is going to cancel the show, and they’ve got some highly paid PR flacks.
Whether The Mentalist appears on another network next season is outside the cancellation bear’s capability to guess. Warner Brothers did manage to get SouthLAnd on corporate sibling TNT after it was canceled by NBC, but events like that are so rare as to be effectively unpredictable by the bear.
While the bear has moved his Friends With Better Lives prediction down to “likely canceled” he admits to not feeling strongly about it. The ratings haven’t been terrible, but its scheduling plus its mediocre ratings doesn’t signal a return to the bear.
Since the majority of Bad Teacher episodes will air during broadcast “summer” which begins on May 22, the bear’s treating it as a summer show, ignored for prediction purposes.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is now the best place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed over 40,000 times, the comments audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). 24,000 follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2014|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2014|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.