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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – March 1, 2015):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.65|
|The Mentalist*||final season complete||0.70|
|Blue Bloods (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.70|
|Hawaii Five-0 (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.71|
|Person Of Interest||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.83|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.87|
|Mike & Molly||1.08|
|NCIS: New Orleans||renewed||1.13|
|2 Broke Girls||1.16|
|Two And A Half Men*||final season complete||1.21|
|The Odd Couple||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.52|
|The Big Bang Theory||renewed||2.33|
The pitiful 1.0 adults 18-49 rating for the premiere of Battle Creek puts it squarely between the cancellation bear’s jaws. If the bear was in “headline conservation mode” he’d have started it as just “likely to be canceled” today, but he’s not. The show is certain to be canceled.
Is this finally the year that the bear catches CSI? Yes.
How is Elementary certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.
Notes from Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:
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The Odd Couple is doing well after The Big Bang Theory, surprising no one. The real test will come only once it airs in a different timeslot next season.
Battle Creek arrived DOA. Given the scheduling, that can’t be much of a shocker.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.