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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – April 5, 2015):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.59|
|The Mentalist*||final season complete||0.70|
|Hawaii Five-0 (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.71|
|Blue Bloods (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.73|
|CSI:Cyber||😐 😐 😐||0.84|
|Person Of Interest||0.85|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||0.89|
|Mike & Molly||renewed||1.09|
|NCIS: New Orleans||renewed||1.11|
|2 Broke Girls||renewed||1.15|
|Two And A Half Men*||final season complete||1.21|
|The Odd Couple||1.42|
|The Big Bang Theory||renewed||2.35|
Awards keep The Good Wife alive? Don’t make the cancellation bear laugh.
The only reason the dreadfully rated show is still on CBS’s air is that its syndication revenue more than makes up for its current, woeful, ad revenue (which is directly related to its demo ratings).
The show’s managed just a 1.0 rating in its last 4 episodes. If it’s renewed, it will be quite a challenge for the CBS PR Jedi to make next season’s ratings sound good.
But CBS has two other, almost as low rated, dramas already in syndication as well (Hawaii Five-0, Blue Bloods). The bear’s long predicted that one of the three will be canceled. He’ll make a wild guess which one no later than May 5.
How is Elementary certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.