Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – May 15, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Defenders (F)||cancelled||0.48|
|The Defenders (Wed only)||cancelled||0.56|
|Blue Bloods (F)||renewed||0.61|
|Blue Bloods (Wed)||renewed||0.72|
|The Good Wife||renewed||0.78|
|Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior||cancelled||0.89|
|Rules of Engagement||renewed||1.00|
|$#*! My Dad Says||cancelled||1.00|
|Mike & Molly||renewed||1.15|
|How I Met Your Mother||renewed||1.20|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||renewed||1.25|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.40|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed||1.66|
Crafty Les Moonves, as commenters will certainly note, I’d figured that, like the past several seasons, he would have to cancel 3 dramas from his late spring schedule to fit 3 new dramas in for next Fall. Instead, he cut back against the grain, and nixed an hour of Fall reality (Undercover Boss, now held for mid-season) which meant that only two dramas (Chaos, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior) were cancelled from his late spring schedule.
That contributed to two wrong drama cancellation predictions (Blue Bloods, CSI:NY) for the Renew/Cancel Index, the most for any broadcast network this season.
William Shatner (after $#*! My Dad Says was cancelled) and I can both scream “MOONVESSSSSSSSSSS!”
Two more things to note:
- A favorite square to fill in Fan Excuse Bingo , “Reality TV ruins everything!” is ofen the lament when fan’s favorite shows are cancelled. Let’s see how many fans cheer for the dropping of the hour of Undercover Boss from the Fall schedule.
- As if there was any doubt that syndication revenue drives the decisions at CBS, putting Rules Of Engagement (which will hit enough episodes for stripped syndication next season) on Saturday is the TV equivalent of a straight to DVD movie just to generate enough episodes for the show. As if CBS renewal predictions weren’t complicated enough, now that they’ll move a show to Saturday during a ‘Til Death style episode churn out burn off, it makes predictions even more difficult.
With that the Index bids the 2010-11 CBS season adieu, there will be no more CBS Renew / Cancel posts until September, but expect a general post in the next couple weeks on some potential changes for next season’s Renew / Cancel Index.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.