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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through December 11, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|A Gifted Man (F)||😳||0.39|
|CSI:NY (F)||😥 😥||0.50|
|Blue Bloods (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.58|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.63|
|CSI: Miami||😐 😐 😐||0.63|
|How To Be A Gentleman||canceled||0.74|
|CSI||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.81|
|The Mentalist||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.85|
|Person Of Interest||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.85|
|Hawaii Five-0||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.95|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.03|
|Rules of Engagement||😐 😐 😐||1.08|
|Mike & Molly||1.30|
|How I Met Your Mother||renewed||1.38|
|2 Broke Girls||1.44|
|Two And A Half Men||1.60|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.61|
I looked a little more closely at more recent results (since 10/31) in with an eye towards potentially adjusting predictions as we near the mid-season mark. That produced the most adjustments to my predictions for CBS than for any other network.
Unforgettable was downgraded to more likely to be canceled than renewed. It’s held almost exactly the same relative ratings position as did last season’s The Defenders, which was ultimately canceled.
CSI:NY was also downgraded to more likely to be canceled than renewed. I do think this the season that at least one of the CSI family goes away, and CSI:NY ratings say that it is the most likely. I almost moved CSI: Miami there as well, but the announcement of a syndication deal with AMC this week gave me a bit of hesitation.
Their most recent relative ratings records (both 85% of CBS’s scripted average) have caused me to upgrade The Mentalist and Person Of Interest to more likely to be renewed than canceled. And particularly for Person Of Interest, I cannot imagine CBS canceling all three of their rookie Fall dramas. And CSI’s relative ratings weren’t much different since 10/31, but I cannot imagine CBS canceling all three CSI’s, and with the highest ratings of the three, CSI (the original) is more likely to be renewed than canceled.
The Good Wife’s relative ratings were also identical for both time periods, and while woeful, after suffering through three seasons of bad ratings, I still think it quite possible that CBS suffers through a fourth to get to ~88 episodes produced. And, of course, A Gifted Man is still certain to be canceled.
Rules of Engagement has had its season order shortened for this season. While it has the ratings for renewal, CBS sitcom success may not leave it room in the schedule next season unless CBS expands its sitcom hours. For that reason, it’s a “toss up” for renewal.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.