Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCwShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 4, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Nikita (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.36|
|Emily Owens, M.D.||😳||0.49|
|Gossip Girl||final season||0.54|
|90210||😐 😐 😐||0.63|
|Hart Of Dixie||😐 😐 😐||0.78|
|Beauty And The Beast||😐 😐 😐||1.05|
If the CW follows the pattern they’ve used the last several seasons, they’ll cancel 2 shows in addition to Gossip Girl’s announced exit, so they can premiere 3 new shows next Fall. Even with the Mark Pedowitz talk of more investment in programming, I don’t think they try and premiere 4 new shows in the Fall, and premiering just 2 new Fall shows is just as unlikely considering all his public chatter.
Emily Owens, M.D. is now certain to be canceled, but several scenarios could determine the second cancellation.
- Does 90210 get a short final season? (currently, I assume it will)
- Is Nikita on the Fall, 2013 schedule? (while I predict Nikita renewal for syndication purposes, I’m not certain it goes into the Fall, 2013 schedule)
- If Cult or Carrie Diaries survives (who knows), each survival adds one to the number of Fall shows that would need to be canceled.
How can Nikita with absolutely “look away” bad ratings be “likely to be renewed”? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.
Because the folks at the CW seem to like short final seasons for their veteran shows, 90210 could be renewed for a 13 episode final season next year, even with its terrible ratings, that’s why it’s just a “toss up” for cancellation or renewal. They could certainly re-ealuate their penchant for short final seasons if schedule time next season gets tight though. Read more about it here.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.