Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCwShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – January 18, 2015):

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Program Status
Hart Of Dixie 😳
Reign renewed
Jane The Virgin renewed
The 100 renewed
The Originals renewed
Vampire Diaries renewed
Supernatural renewed
Arrow renewed
The Flash renewed


Followers of the cancellation bear know that he often refers to the “Syndication Gods” as guaranteeing renewal for certain shows. But which shows?

The Guarantee of the Syndication Gods:

  • In recent memory (since Veronica Mars in 2007), every regular season broadcast scripted show that has completed three seasons of at least 66 episodes total has been renewed for a fourth season.

Why? There’s certainly an element of “in for a penny, in for a pound” that comes with a full third season renewal, but it really doesn’t matter to the bear. He’s a pattern recognition predator, and that’s as solid a pattern as any he has to identify prey (or in this case, “not prey”).

What does that mean to the three CW sophomore shows that were just renewed for season 3?

  • If Reign and The Originals get 22 episode season three orders (the number of episodes is currently unknown to the bear), they are guaranteed a season four renewal, since they’ll each have at least 66 episodes.
  • Because The 100 had only 13 episodes in season one, and 16 in season two, there’s no guarantee of a season four renewal no matter how many episodes are ordered for season three.

Here are some notes from Bubble Watch’s Tom Shaw:
Nothing new from Tom this week


Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2015
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2015


The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:Steve Baron

VP/Digital for TV station ownership group; Dad to young twins, runner, skier & spend a lot of times in airplanes.

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