Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCwShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – April 19, 2015):

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Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Messengers (F) summer 0.43
Reign renewed 0.54
Hart Of Dixie* (F) canceled 0.59
The 100* renewed 0.68
Jane The Virgin renewed 0.74
The Originals renewed 0.80
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.00
Supernatural renewed 1.05
iZombie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
Arrow renewed 1.49
The Flash renewed 1.97


The Messengers 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere ratings were low even by CW standards, but so are the ratings for all the summer shows on the CW. The cancellation bear considers The Messengers to be a summer show since the majority of its episodes will air after the season ends on May 20.

While there is no chance The Messengers airs again during the CW regular season, might it return next summer, even with its terrible ratings? The bear doesn’t know, and the bear doesn’t care. He doesn’t bother predicting the future of summer shows, he prefers his vacation hibernation.

The observant will note that the bear has changed his prediction for iZombie to “certain to be renewed”. It’s now the CW’s 3rd highest rated show in 2015. Whatever horse trading may happen between WB produced and CBS produced shows, there’s no way it’s getting canceled with those ratings.

Notes from Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:
The Messengers will not be fighting for a spot on The CW’s schedule next season, as the show premiered to a mere 0.3 rating. The CW knew what it was doing when it buried the show, and will not have to wait until the end of its run to make any decisions.


Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2015
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2015


The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:Steve Baron

VP/Digital for TV station ownership group; Dad to young twins, runner, skier & spend a lot of times in airplanes.

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