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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 17, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Beauty And The Beast||😥 😥||0.39|
|The Carrie Diaries (F)||de facto canceled, airing remaining episodes||0.39|
|Hart Of Dixie||0.52|
|Reign||😐 😐 😐||0.87|
|The Tomorrow People||😐 😐 😐||0.92|
The Tomorrow People ratings started strongly. Its premiere 0.9 adults 18-49 rating was above the CW’s rating average for the week. Sadly for the show’s prospects, its last 3 weeks’ 0.6 ratings have dropped it into the relative ratings range that indicates the show could be either canceled or renewed by season end. So, the cancellation bear has adjusted his prediction for it to “toss up” between cancellation and renewal. The bear hopes, and somewhat expects, that come spring, and the premiere of two new CW dramas, the relative ratings positions of both Reign and The Tomorrow People will become a bit clearer.
Why is The Carrie Diaries defacto canceled?
Fall premiere shows that receive a 13 episode order (veteran or rookie), and no follow on episodes are canceled. (note, Life Unexpected). There will be no announcement, as always, except the fact that it’s left off the schedule announced in May.
With three seasons complete, the CW syndication gods will demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. Maybe it’ll be a short one like Nikita’s, or maybe not. The bear doesn’t get into predicting episode orders.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2014
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.