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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – February 2, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Nikita* (F)||final season complete||0.30|
|Beauty And The Beast||😳||0.44|
|The Carrie Diaries (F)||de facto canceled||0.50|
|Hart Of Dixie||0.64|
|The Tomorrow People||😐😐😐||0.84|
For just the second time this season, The Tomorrow People outrated Reign in the same week (with adults 18-49). And it was just after the cancellation bear noted that TTP would be canceled before Reign was. He still thinks that’s the case, but it’s possible both will be renewed.
It’s certain that at least one of the four shows (Reign, The Tomorrow People, Star-Crossed, The 100) will be renewed, and possibly two of them. It would be stunning if three of them were renewed, and there’s no chance all four will be renewed.
The bear’s not able to handicap those different alternatives very well until he sees the ratings for the two spring premiere dramas. But there will be plenty of time for that. Star-Crossed premieres on February 17. Stay tuned.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the “old” Fall predictions will stay in the table.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2014|
|😥😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014|
|😐😐😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014|
|🙂🙂🙂🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2014|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.