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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through November 27, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Fringe (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.45|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||0.84|
|Terra Nova||😐 😐 😐||0.93|
|Raising Hope||😐 😐 😐||0.95|
|House||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.04|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.04|
As its ratings continued to drop each week, I’ve probably held off longer than I should have before predicting rookie animated Allen Gregory as “certain to be canceled”. I blame recent experience with Bob’s Burgers. It was only in the “toss up” range when it was given a renewal for its second season. I can’t imagine that happening now with Allen Gregory. Its ratings have fallen for four weeks in a row, and the 1.5 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday night spells “certain to be canceled”. And unlike the terrible ratings for Fringe on Friday which harm no other Fox shows following it, the fact that Allen Gregory may be dragging down the 9pm hour for Fox means I’d not expect it to stay in that time slot much longer.
Raising Hope ratings are at the low end of the likely to be renewed range, but unless Fox either (1) expands its sitcom time, (2) holds Raising Hope off the Fall schedule or (3) premieres no new sitcoms next Fall there’s at least some chance that Raising Hope will not return, so I make it a “toss up” for renewal or cancellation.
The ratings say that Fringe is likely to be canceled. The ratings said that last year too, when Warner Brothers likely gave the show away to Fox to get a fourth season for syndication. Will Warner Brothers cut the price again for a fifth season? Would Fox want it even if they did? The answers to both questions is likely no, but in this case I am once bitten, twice shy, and will move the show no lower than a “toss up” for renewal next season. Robert is not nearly so shy.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.