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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 -February 2, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Raising Hope (F)||😳||0.43|
|The Mindy Project||😐 😐 😐||0.77|
|Dads||de facto canceled||0.84|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.95|
|Almost Human||😥 😥||1.13|
|The Following||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.18|
|American Dad||final season on Fox||1.24|
The cancellation bear moved his prediction for Almost Human down to “likely to be canceled”. Its 2014 ratings haven’t been bad, but the lack of additional episodes ordered, and Bones moving back to Monday at 8pm sends the signal that Almost Human is done. Those claiming it was always intended to be a 13 episode “limited series” like Sleepy Hollow are engaging in delusional revisionist history.
Rake’s premiere rating put it right in the middle of Fox’s “toss up” range. Its second episode dropped it well within the “certain to be canceled” range. Since it was in the headline last week, the bear thought he’d wait at least a week before putting Rake back in. Can’t get stuck in a rut!
The bear is now leaning towards moving The Mindy Project to likely to be canceled, but he’s got time to see how Brooklyn 9-9 does after New Girl tonight. There are plenty more weeks of Fox headlines to write and fit Mindy in.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the “old” Fall predictions will stay in the table.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2014|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2014|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.