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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-December 8, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Raising Hope (F)||😳||0.39|
|Dads||de facto canceled, episodes scheduled through 2/11||0.78|
|The Mindy Project||😐😐😐||0.78|
|Bones (some F)||1.04|
|American Dad||final season on Fox||1.06|
Declining each week, the ratings for Almost Human fell to a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating last Monday. That ratings tumble, plus the schedule rejiggering to remove Almost Human from the nights of both the Sleepy Hollow finale and The Following premiere indicate that the show is now at best a “toss up” to be canceled or renewed.
Monday night shows with rapidly changing ratings pose a unique dilemma for the bear. Sometimes his prediction becomes outdated minutes after it’s made. (The ratings for last night were not known when this was written and are not reflected in the prediction, or the numbers in the table above.) As always, further changes in a show’s relative ratings mean more prediction changes. Stay tuned.
Why is Dads “defacto canceled”?
Rookie shows that have their episode orders reduced, and their scheduled air dates end in February, have been canceled.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
- 😐😐 :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
- 🙂🙂🙂 :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
- :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2014
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.