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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – January 19, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Raising Hope (F)||😳||0.41|
|The Mindy Project||😐 😐 😐||0.66|
|Dads||de facto canceled||0.75|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.80|
|Almost Human||😐 😐 😐||1.05|
|American Dad||final season on Fox||1.32|
The 2014 ratings for Almost Human indicate it’s likely to be renewed, but Fox’s scheduling of the show, and their silence, point the other direction. The two together are keeping the cancellation bear’s prediction at “toss up” for now.
Fox scheduled an episode of the show as the only original scripted episode aired on the network for the week ending December 22. It’s being bumped for the next two weeks for the 2 hour finale of Sleepy Hollow (after originally being scheduled to precede the penultimate episode) and the premiere of The Following. Perhaps both are explainable for scheduling logistics purposes, but that’s typically not how networks schedule shows they plan on renewing.
When the show returns on February 3 it will have only a few episodes remaining of its original order and Fox has yet to announce either a back order, or what will happen to its timeslot after its 13 episodes finish. That should be worrying to fans.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the “old” Fall predictions will stay in the table.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2014|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2014|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.