Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-9, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||cancelled||n/a|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||0.89|
|Lie To Me||pending|
Thanks to a nice assist from the NFL, Bob’s Burgers opened strong on Sunday night. We’ll have to see how its ratings do moving forward, but so far, so good.
Resetting the Fox Renew/Cancel Index to use only shows airing on or after 1/3/11* doesn’t reveal anything new about any of the shows with questions over their futures. Of the shows that were pegged as more likely to be cancelled than renewed (including Lie To Me and Fringe), only Human Target aired a new episode last week. We’ll see more action this spring watching the ratings progress of Bob’s Burgers and Chicago Code.
*Why do that?
In previous seasons, comparing the season ratings averages for shows that began in the spring to those that began in the fall proved a bit apples to oranges because the overall lowered spring ratings (partially caused by Daylight Savings Time as well as a variety of reasons) tended to understate the position of shows that began in the fall. When tested on last season’s ratings, beginning a new Index after New Year’s seemed to correct that apples to oranges comparison problem.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐😐 :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂🙂🙂 :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.