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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – March 2, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Raising Hope (F)||😳 (canceled 3/10)||0.44|
|The Mindy Project*||Renewed on March 7||0.72|
|Dads*||de facto canceled||0.83|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||Renewed on March 7||0.94|
|New Girl||Renewed on March 7||1.02|
|The Following||Renewed on March 7||1.16|
|American Dad||final season on Fox||1.37|
Update: Fox announced it had renewed The Mindy Project, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl and The Following late on Friday, March 7.
The Mindy Project was put on hiatus in late January. That schedule yank, plus its well below average relative ratings to that point, has the cancellation bear moving his prediction for it down to “likely to be canceled”. Why wait until now? Mostly because the bear likes to space out his changes to have something new to put in the headlines.
Note to those paying close attention, the bear typically freezes the Index value of shows once they’re off the schedule, otherwise the value would change in ways that don’t indicate the true relative ratings position of the show. That slipped the bear’s mind with Mindy until this week. It’s Index value has now been adjusted to where it was when it left Fox’s schedule in late January.
Note to the new, or delusional, readers. When a rookie show has a previously unannounced schedule change to Friday (Rake) in the middle of its run, the show has been canceled and the remaining episodes are being burned off.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the “old” Fall predictions will stay in the table.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2014|
|😥😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014|
|😐😐😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014|
|🙂🙂🙂🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2014|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.