Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewFOXShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – April 5, 2015):

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Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Mulaney* canceled 0.36
Glee (F) final season 0.39
Weird Loners 😳 0.41
Gracepoint* canceled 0.53
The Mindy Project* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.56
Red Band Society* canceled 0.61
Backstrom 😳 0.65
Bones 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.70
The Following 😥 😥 0.72
Bob’s Burgers renewed 0.73
New Girl renewed 0.77
Sleepy Hollow* renewed 0.82
Brooklyn Nine-Nine renewed 0.92
The Last Man On Earth :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Family Guy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
The Simpsons renewed 1.11
Gotham renewed 1.23
Empire* renewed 2.91


Weird Loners is certain to be canceled. The “shove its premiere to the end of the season” sitcom premiered with just a 0.7 adults 18-49 rating. It will be written of no more by the cancellation bear.

Past weeks:

Why is The Mindy Project certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.

Notes from Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:

New Girl was formally renewed by Fox… long after it had leaked out on social media that they were already producing episodes for next season to work around star Zooey Deschanel’s pregnancy. The show is no longer anything special in the general Adults 18-49, but given the state of Fox, it was virtually certain they’d find a place for its still strong Women 18-34 ratings.
Weird Loners, on the other hand, arrived DOA.
The lesson being, between The Lone GunmenLone Star, & Weird Loners, never bet on Fox shows with the word “Lone” in their title.
While the syndication gods demand a fourth season, they don’t necessarily demand it remain on the same network, and I’ve seen people wondering if The Mindy Project might be the next show to jump to the streaming world.
Frankly, I would be shocked. The entire rationale behind the automatic fourth season is that the bump a show’s producer sees in syndication for four seasons counteracts whatever pennies the show’s network offers for that fourth season. Those streaming deals, however, are based on exclusivity – those episodes won’t be available anywhere else, at least for years.
(It’s worth pointing out that the streaming revivals so far have either been of shows whose existing episodes were long sold into syndication (Arrested DevelopmentCommunity), or of shows whose runs were too short to get to standard syndication numbers (The Killing).)
As such, this contradiction in goals – a streaming service wants exclusivity, while The Mindy Project‘s producers’ entire goal is expanding the syndication package – makes me assume that if The Mindy Project moves, it will be to another broadcast or cable network. (And Weird Loners has established that worse-than-The Mindy Project numbers for Fox is clearly a possibility.)


Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2015
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2015


The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:Steve Baron

VP/Digital for TV station ownership group; Dad to young twins, runner, skier & spend a lot of times in airplanes.

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