FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 1 of he 2016-17 season show some trouble spots already — which, oddly enough, could end up helping a new drama that got off to a shaky start.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the new methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Rosewood (O) 🐻 🐻 0.7 0.0
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.9 0.2
Scream Queens (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.0 0.3
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.0 0.39
Pitch (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
New Girl (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.2 0.5
Son of Zorn (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.2 0.5
Lucifer 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
Gotham 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.4 0.7
The Simpsons (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.6 0.9
Lethal Weapon 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.2 1.5
Empire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 4.2 3.5
Bob’s Burgers (O) Renewed 1.2 0.5

 

“Pitch” will probably get to play out its initial 13-episode order. Beyond that? It’s going to need some help.

FOX will promote the show relentlessly during its baseball playoff coverage, which … likely won’t help much beyond the very short term, if at all. It has a lot of critical support, which also doesn’t keep a network show afloat for a long time.

But FOX also has other issues, even right out of the gate. Four shows on the network rated lower than “Pitch” during premiere week, and because of that (and the fact that the season just began), “Pitch” will stay in tossup territory for the moment.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.3 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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