Updated: A few hours after this post was published, FOX officially renewed “New Girl” for next season.
FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 29 of the 2015-16 season bets that a sub-1.0 rating for a veteran show’s most recent episode won’t have any impact on its renewal chances.
FOX scripted average through April 10: 1.33
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Minority Report (O)||Canceled||0.71||0.47|
|Second Chance (O)||😥||0.65||0.49|
|The Grinder (O)||😦 😦||0.79||0.59|
|Sleepy Hollow (O)||😦 😦||0.82||0.62|
|Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life (O)||😥||0.96||0.72|
|Grandfathered (O)||😐 😐 😐||0.97||0.73|
|New Girl (O)||Renewed||1.22||0.92|
|Family Guy (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.54||1.16|
|Scream Queens (O)||Renewed||1.06||0.70|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.05||0.79|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||Renewed||1.21||0.91|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.87||1.41|
“New Girl’s” last episode fell below 1.0 in adults 18-49 for the first time in 2015-16. That’s not good, but it shouldn’t matter for the show’s chances of renewal. It’s still likely to return for a sixth season.
The show has been the best performer in FOX’s Tuesday lineup in every week it’s been on since its January premiere. That’s not saying a ton, since FOX’s Tuesday is a pretty soft night, but it’s not nothing either. If the network wants to try more new comedies on the night next season, “New Girl” is the closest thing to a springboard it has.
Another season also means 22 episodes’ worth of syndication money for FOX’s sister studio. It’s a safe bet to return.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.