FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 30 of the 2015-16 season moves one of the network’s first-year Tuesday comedies into safe renewal territory, barely.
FOX scripted average through April 17: 1.31
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Minority Report (O)||Canceled||0.71||0.47|
|Second Chance (O)||😥||0.65||0.50|
|The Grinder (O)||😦 😦||0.78||0.60|
|Sleepy Hollow (O)||😦 😦||0.82||0.62|
|Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life (O)||😥||0.9||0.69|
|Grandfathered (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.97||0.74|
|Family Guy (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.52||1.16|
|New Girl (O)||Renewed||1.21||0.92|
|Scream Queens (O)||Renewed||1.06||0.70|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.05||0.80|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||Renewed||1.21||0.92|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.87||1.43|
FOX isn’t likely to keep both of its first-year comedies “Grandfathered” and “The Grinder,” as the Bear has discussed several times before. The numbers say “Grandfathered” is the more likely one to stay, so it’s getting bumped up to safe territory.
It’s the softest of safe bets, though, as “Grandfathered” hasn’t been above a 1.0 in adults 18-49 since early February. But such is the state of FOX at the moment that a show with “Grandfathered’s” ratings can be a safe bet.
FOX’s Tuesday is a mess, and “Grandfathered” isn’t going to fix it if it stays there next season. But it might help the network keep its head above water while it works on a solution.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.