Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewFOXShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 4, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Fringe (F)||final season||0.47|
|The Mob Doctor||😳||0.56|
|Ben And Kate||😥 😥||0.75|
|The Mindy Project||😐 😐 😐||0.94|
|The Cleveland Show||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.00|
|American Dad||already renewed||1.13|
|Family Guy||already renewed||1.39|
|The Simpsons||already renewed||1.65|
The cancellation bear is a pattern recognition predator. He watches what networks do and predicts they’ll do the same thing again, and again, and again. When it comes to which shows will be canceled and which will be renewed that’s proven very successful.
While the bear is very good at predicting which shows will be canceled by the end of the season, he’s never been very good at picking the date on which shows might be yanked off the schedule early, and this season is no exception.
Two years ago when Fox’s Lone Star, “Lone Star’d” its premiere rating (1.3) it was yanked after its second episode (which had a 1.0). This season, The Mob Doctor was nearly as woeful (1.5, 1.3, 1.0, 0.9, 1.0) and yet looks like it will air most or all of its 13 episode order before vanishing.
To answer the headline question, of course The Mob Doctor has no chance of airing more than 13 episodes, but the bear may be doing a bit more analysis after this season about the longevity for obviously dead shows.
Two weeks ago a plunge to a 1.5 rating for The Mindy Project raised the question of whether it might be canceled along with Ben And Kate. It certainly could, and its currently a “toss up” for renewal or cancellation.
Raising Hope is predicted as “certain to be renewed” even with its somewhat weak early ratings. While the syndication gods ruling Fox aren’t quite as predictable as those ruling CBS, it would take nothing short of a cataclysm to prevent the show from getting a fourth season. Read more about it here.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.