Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-16, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||cancelled|
|Human Target (some F)||😥 😥||0.48|
|Lie To Me||😥 😥||0.51|
|American Dad||😐 😐 😐||0.56|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||1.03|
|Bob’s Burgers||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.14|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂|
Fringe moves to its new timeslot this Friday at 9pm. Lots of chatter about what ratings it needs for renewal. 100% of its Thursday ratings? 90%? 80%? Something better than The Good Guys?
Fringe averaged a 1.88 adults 18-49 rating for new episodes on Thursday last fall. This Friday’s results may bring fans hope or have them filling up their fan excuse bingo cards in a frenzy. Stay tuned Saturday morning.
Bob’s Burgers ratings slipped in its second outing to just below the American Dad new episode average from last fall. If it can hold there, it’s likely in good shape for renewal. If not…
Lie To Me returned with two poorly rated new episodes last week. Human Target’s hastily rescheduled (because of the Tucson memorial coverage) double episode on Friday was predictably poorly rated, and it’s being bumped from several scheduled air times by an expanded American Idol. Both are likely to be cancelled at the end of the season.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.