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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – January 26, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Welcome To The Family*||canceled||0.52|
|The Michael J. Fox Show||😳||0.58|
|Sean Saves The World||😳 (canceled 1/28)||0.62|
|Parks & Recreation||🙂🙂🙂🙂||0.97|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.32|
The cancellation bear remembers the howls of woe from the local NBC affiliates (and outrage from Hollywood) when, to try and save money, NBC replaced its weekday 10pm shows with The Jay Leno Show.
The bear always thought NBC’s strategic error was one of degree. Going low cost in 5 hours all at once was too much for the inertia filled TV industry to handle. Had they dribbled out one new low cost hour each season, NBC could have boiled the frog without all the frantic jumping around.
That’s what they seem to be doing lately with the low cost additions of Dracula and Hannibal to their schedule. Both suffer from well below average (even for NBC) ratings. But even with last season’s woeful ratings, Hannibal was renewed, indicating it had to be very cheap for NBC.
Is Dracula cheap enough to survive it’s terrible ratings this season? The bear doesn’t think so, but with the Hannibal lesson in mind, he’s not certain. That’s why he’ll keep the show as just “likely to be canceled” until decision time.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2014|
|😥😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014|
|😐😐😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014|
|🙂🙂🙂🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2014|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.