NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 27 of the 2015-16 season looks at shows on the bubble. For these purposes, “bubble” means any show not yet renewed and not listed below as a sure cancellation.
NBC scripted average through March 27: 1.26
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Truth Be Told (F) (O)||Canceled||0.59||0.43|
|Heroes Reborn (O)||Canceled||1.21||0.88|
|You, Me and the Apocalypse||😥||0.71||0.56|
|Telenovela (O)||😦 😦||0.99||0.76|
|Undateable (F)||😦 😦||0.77||0.61|
|Grimm (F) (O)||😐 😐 😐||0.92||0.73|
|The Mysteries of Laura||😐 😐 😐||1.12||0.87|
|Heartbeat (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.15||0.91|
|The Carmichael Show (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.16||0.92|
|Crowded (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.23||0.98|
|Shades of Blue (O)||Renewed||1.18||0.94|
|Chicago PD (O)||Renewed||1.61||1.28|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||Renewed||1.69||1.34|
|Chicago Med (O)||Renewed||1.76||1.40|
|Chicago Fire (O)||Renewed||1.81||1.44|
Between a bubble and a hard place: “Telenovela.” “Superstore” did surprisingly well in the winter and earned a renewal, but its companion had a tougher time, barely managing a (rounded) 1.0 for its season same-day average. With other comedies performing a little better, it may get left out.
Bubbling along nicely: Nothing that hasn’t been renewed can be considered really safe. But — and the Bear can’t believe he’s saying this — “The Mysteries of Laura” may be in the best position. No other show that’s yet to be picked up has shown it can pull better numbers than the consistent low 1s “Laura” got this season.
Still sweating it: “Heartbeat,” “Undateable”
On the safer side: “The Carmichael Show,” “Crowded,” “Grimm”
TBD: “Game of Silence” (premieres April 7)
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.