Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-23 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Outsourced||😐 😐 😐||0.80|
|Chuck||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.93|
|Perfect Couples||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.93|
|Parenthood||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.98|
|The Cape||😐 😐 😐||0.98|
|Harry’s Law||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.98|
|Community||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.98|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.14|
|Parks & Recreation||1.42|
|Law & Order: LA||pending|
The cancellation bear is back for spring, and in the first week plus of NBC’s spring season both The Cape and Outsourced ratings are stumbling back towards him, separating themselves from the rest of the NBC scripted show pack. Note that The Cape’s ratings average, and its Index, has not yet declined to the extent that its most recent ratings would indicate.
Fans of Chuck, Parenthood, Community, Perfect Couples, and Harry’s Law shouldn’t be popping any corks yet, but after the first (or first few) episodes of spring they’re all in reasonably good shape. Odds are that situation will not last for all of them.
Parks & Recreation returned strongly after almost a year off. Fans can exhale now.
Did anyone need reminding that Chase is certain to be cancelled? Didn’t think so.
While this is the case for all the networks, it bears repeating here that most NBC shows above have just a single episode’s worth of ratings in their spring average so far, and their status can change noticeably from week to week.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.