Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewNbcShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2-8, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Playboy Club||canceled||0.67*|
|Chuck (F)||final season||0.68|
|Parks & Recreation||?|
|Law & Order: SVU||?|
|Up All Night||?|
We’re one week into 2012, and the cancellation bear already has a new show just steps ahead of him.
Even on the ongoing train wreck that is NBC primetime, The Firm’s 1.4 adults 18-49 rating for its premiere was NBC’s lowest rated in-season drama premiere ever. Because NBC only aired 3 new scripted shows last week the Index is woefully incomplete and I’m going to hold off on any predictions, but next week’s post will probably have The Firm either likely or certain to be canceled.
Because Sony made NBC a super cheap deal for all 22 episodes of The Firm, reportedly financing it through overseas syndication, I think there are 3 thresholds for the show’s future.
- How low can it go and get renewed on NBC for a second season? It’s likely below that already.
- How low can it go before it gets moved to Saturday or the summer? Certainly lower than a 1.4. How much lower? Your guess is as good as mine.
- How low can it go before it gets pulled entirely and never comes back on NBC air? Very low. Again, your guess is as good as mine.
As for the Forbes reporter that Tweeted why the show wouldn’t be canceled, I think we have a definition difference. When we say “canceled” we mean “not renewed for another season”. When others (perhaps her) say “canceled” they mean “removed from the schedule immediately”. At least I hope that’s what she thinks, to give her the benefit of the doubt.
? – Only three NBC scripted shows aired new episodes last week, so its Renew / Cancel Index is incomplete and I’m holding off posting new predictions on any of its shows for now.
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC’s shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.