With the 2017-18 season crop of scripted series (mostly) put to bed, the Bear has sated himself on a bevy of canceled shows. It’s time to see how this ursine did on predictions this season.
In short: quite well. As things stand at publication time, the Bear predicted the fates 76 of 90 network shows (excluding those renewed ahead of the season and with pre-announced final runs) correctly. Ten were misses and four rated as tossups at the time of decision — including CBS’ “Code Black,” which will run into the summer.
Four other shows — FOX’s “Ghosted” and NBC’s “Champions,” “Timeless” and “Law & Order True Crime” — are still in limbo. NBC says “True Crime” won’t be back next season but could return if the mood strikes (the “X-Files”/”Curb Your Enthusiasm” plan).
The Bear’s current winning percentage is .867, up for the second straight year (vs. .856 last season and .842 in 2015-16). Worst case, the Bear will have an .830 average in the (unlikely) event predictions on the four holdouts are all wrong. At the top end, the Bear’s average will be .872.
Here’s the network-by-network breakdown.
ABC: 17 right, 3 wrong, 1 tossup
Best calls: “Fresh Off the Boat” and “Speechless” may have a tough go on Fridays next season, but they’ll be back. The Bear had them as likely renewals for much of the season despite ratings on the lower end of ABC’s comedy roster.
Misses: The little-watched “For the People” somehow got a second season. On the flip side, the Bear believed “Designated Survivor” and “Quantico” might squeak by on account of network ownership; both were canceled.
CBS: 20 right, 2 wrong, 2 tossups
Best call: Sticking with network-owned comedy “Man with a Plan,” which was stable (albeit not especially strong) and rated as a likely renewal for much of the season.
Misses: Absent a back-end deal, fourth-year drama “Scorpion” got the ax. “Kevin Can Wait” also went down despite having the best numbers of CBS’ Monday comedies. CBS TV Studios co-produced the show, but outside studio Sony controlled its distribution, which likely helped hasten its end.
FOX: 12 right*, 4 wrong, 1 TBD
Best call: The Bear recognized that while “The Resident” didn’t carry over the rented NFL audience from its premiere to its regular time period, it was still performing well enough to earn a second season. The asterisk above is for “Brooklyn Nine-Nine”: The Bear correctly predicted its cancellation on FOX, although it will continue to live next season on NBC.
Misses: “Gotham” was a tossup for much of the season; the Bear went the wrong way at the end. “Lucifer” came from an outside studio but had partial Third Season Rule protection that ended up for naught. The Bear also didn’t foresee quite as big a live-action comedy purge at the network, incorrectly predicting renewals for “The Last Man on Earth” and “The Mick.”
NBC: 13 right, 1 wrong, 3 TBD
Best call: Rookie “Good Girls” faded some after a solid start but stayed just above the 1.0 line for the season; the Bear had it as a likely renewal from its midpoint onward.
Miss: “AP Bio” was this season’s “Great News,” a first-year comedy with marginal ratings (a just-above-replacement-level 0.73) that was renewed nonetheless.
The CW: 14 right, 0 wrong, 1 tossup
Best calls: Staying with the low-rated-even-for-The-CW “Dynasty” on the basis of overseas sales making it profitable, and with “iZombie” as a show that would help ease The CW’s transition into a six-night network.
The lone tossup was “The 100,” which was renewed ahead of the Bear bumping it up to safe status.
The Bear is headed into hibernation for the summer, save for any decisions on the remaining shows in limbo. See you in September.