Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-February 6, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Whole Truth||cancelled|
|No Ordinary Family||😳||0.68|
|Off The Map||😥 😥||0.79|
|Brothers & Sisters||😐 😐 😐||0.82|
|Better With You||😐 😐 😐||0.90|
With just a smattering of new episodes on ABC last week, this seemed like a good time to recap the current situation for their shows not currently renewed.
Detroit 1-8-7 and No Ordinary Family are certain to be cancelled at the end of the season. Both V and Off The Map are more likely to be cancelled than renewed. Brothers & Sisters is hanging on at the bottom of the “toss up” range, and its spring premiere episode boosted Better With You to the top of the “toss up” range (although the show has only aired 2 episodes this spring).
Can ABC cancel 6+ hours of scripted shows that aired this season? Of course they can. They cancelled eight hours of scripted shows (Better Off Ted, Ugly Betty, The Deep End, Hank, Scrubs, the forgotten, Eastwick, Happy Town, FlashForward, Romantically Challenged) that aired during the 2009-10 season.
I’d expect the apocalypse before I’d expect Desperate Housewives to not be renewed, and the four horsemen are not in evidence.
ABC’s last chance for a hit drama this season looks to be Body of Proof, premiering in March.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.