Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 24, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Whole Truth||cancelled||0.45|
|Better With You||😐 😐 😐||0.76|
|The Middle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.87|
|No Ordinary Family||😐 😐 😐||0.88|
|Castle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.90|
|Brothers & Sisters||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.93|
The best of the bad (ratings) rookie class for ABC, No Ordinary Family, saw its ratings continue to fall last week, down to a 2.2 adults 18-49 rating. That’s well below ABC’s scripted show average for the week. I now rate its chances for a second season as a “toss up”, regardless of the full season order this year. Could saving face alone get it renewed?
Last season’s rookie drama V started much higher than No Ordinary Family and ultimately fell further, and yet was still renewed. I speculated that it might have been to preserve a little face, and prevent a complete rookie drama strike out..
Is No Ordinary Family this season’s V?
Better With You’s place on next season’s schedule is looking increasingly shaky at its current ratings level, full season order for this year notwithstanding.
The Whole Truth didn’t get any additional episodes ordered, and the producer announced its cancellation soon afterwards. The show is pre-empted the first two weeks of November, will have to see when, or if, it comes back to ABC’s schedule.
Some are speculating that Brothers & Sisters could be in its last season. If the producers or stars want to end the show, that’s something I don’t keep track of. It could also fall prey to what I’ll call the “Without A Trace” syndrome. A veteran, and therefore expensive, show cancelled with ratings that would otherwise cause it to be renewed. Heroes was struck down by the same malady.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.