Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 31, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Whole Truth||cancelled||0.44|
|Better With You||😐 😐 😐||0.78|
|No Ordinary Family||😐 😐 😐||0.85|
|The Middle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.89|
|Brothers & Sisters||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.91|
|Castle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.92|
The characters in No Ordinary Family may have super powers, but the show’s ratings certainly don’t. They continued to fall last week, down to just a 2.0 adults 18-49 rating. No Ordinary Family fell even as the average ABC scripted show’s ratings increased. Any more relative declines like that, and it’s headed towards “cancellation likely”.
Better With You ratings jumped last week along with the rest of ABC’s Halloween themed comedies. If it could hold that 2.5 adults 18-49 rating, I’d look for it to be renewed, but if it settles back down to its ratings of the previous few weeks, ABC will go into next season without Better With You.
The Whole Truth, now cancelled, is pre-empted the entire four weeks of the November ratings sweeps period. ABC might still air all its 13 episodes before it vanishes, but not in November when the local affiliates would whine!
Some are speculating that Brothers & Sisters could be in its last season. If the producers or stars want to end the show, that’s something I don’t keep track of. It could also fall prey to what I’ll call the “Without A Trace” syndrome. A veteran, and therefore expensive, show cancelled with ratings that would otherwise cause it to be renewed.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.