Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 17, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Whole Truth||😳||0.45|
|Detroit 1-8-7||😥 😥||0.65|
|Better With You||😐 😐 😐||0.76|
|The Middle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.86|
|Castle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.91|
|No Ordinary Family||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.92|
|Brothers & Sisters||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.94|
A series of recent ABC programming announcements have made it clear that ABC is shepherding the rest of its programming (and marketing) resources this season for program premieres in early 2011.
That makes it much more likely that ratings losers like The Whole Truth and Detroit 1-8-7 that are certain to be cancelled by the end of the season, will end up finishing their initial 13 episode orders on the air pretty much as scheduled (vs. in the summer, or online like Better Off Ted)
Sitcom Better With You might survive until next season, but the ratings trend is not its friend.
No Ordinary Family ratings continue to fall. I debated moving it to “toss up” this week because it was well below ABC’s average last week, but will wait and see what happens in its fourth episode. One more drop, and there’s no debate.
It’s important to note that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.