Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-March 13, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Whole Truth||cancelled|
|No Ordinary Family||😳||0.63|
|Off The Map||😥 😥||0.74|
|Brothers & Sisters||😐 😐 😐||0.81|
|Better With You||😥 😥||0.82|
|Mr. Sunshine||😐 😐 😐||1.04|
Last spring, with V averaging a 2.2 adults 18-49 rating, I wondered whether ABC might renew it so as not to suffer the indignity of canceling all its rookie dramas.
This spring, with V averaging an even lower 1.9 rating, is no longer one of ABC’s rookies, and ABC has a new entertainment president not tied to the decisions of the past, it’s unlikely that V catches whatever break it caught last season. The Visitors should have their bags packed.
Which drama might get the face saving “We didn’t cancel ALL our rookie dramas” renewal this season? Maybe none, but the only ones still in the running are Off The Map (unlikely), or the upcoming Body Of Proof (not yet aired).
Brothers & Sisters is hanging on to the bottom of the “toss up” range between renewal and cancellation.
ABC’s new Mr. Sunshine still looks like a toss up for renewal, but Better With You will need to catch a big break to escape cancellation.
Detroit 1-8-7 and No Ordinary Family are certain to be cancelled at the end of the season. Off The Map is more likely to be cancelled than renewed.
I’d expect the apocalypse before I’d expect Desperate Housewives to not be renewed.
ABC’s last chance for a hit drama this season looks to be Body of Proof, premiering in March.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.