When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season.  Certain shows are toss-ups where the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

This week’s only  changes were that The Whole Truth went from ‘certain to be canceled’ to ‘already canceled’ and The Defenders moved from being a bubble show as far as renewal for next season to ‘likely to be canceled.’

Here’s the recap of shows whose cancellation status seems likely or certain, including this season’s shows that have already been canceled:

Show Network Status
The Whole Truth ABC Already Canceled*
My Generation ABC Already Canceled
Detroit 1-8-7 ABC Likely to be Canceled
Medium CBS Likely to be Canceled
The Defenders CBS Likely to be Canceled
Life Unexpected CW Certain to be Canceled
Outlaw NBC Already Canceled
Undercovers NBC Likely to be Canceled
Chase NBC Likely to be Canceled
The Good Guys FOX Certain to be Canceled
Lone Star FOX Already Canceled
Running Wilde FOX Certain to be Canceled

*production to end after 13 episodes, already bounced from the November sweeps schedule.

The numerous full season pick-ups a couple of weeks ago didn’t change the list of bubble contenders when it comes to renewal for the 2011-12 season.

Having The Good Wife on the list below continues to generate the most controversy & discussion.  While the consensus is, even from Bill, that The Good Wife would move to Fridays next season, as CBS’s second worst-rated non Friday scripted show, it’s still in the tossup range.

“But The Good Wife wins its time slot!” is about as important to the discussion as saying “But Frank Gore has the 7th most rushing yards out of all 30 NFL teams!” when it comes to the San Francisco 49ers having the worst record in the NFL heading into this weekend (their impending win over the Denver Broncos will change that, though they will still be in last place in the NFC West).

Some are saying Chuck isn’t on the bubble for next season and has never been in better position.   But at this point in the season, among NBC’s scripted shows Chuck is currently only in better shape than the already canceled Outlaw and the certain (barring a miraculous ratings turnaround) not to be renewed Chase and Undercovers.

Bubble Show Contenders:

Show Net
Better With You ABC
No Ordinary Family ABC
Blue Bloods CBS
The Good Wife CBS
Fringe FOX
Lie to Me FOX
Community NBC
Chuck NBC
The Event NBC
Law & Order: LA NBC
Parenthood NBC
Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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