When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch seeks to prognosticate on what will happen by May.  The two are still usually fairly closely aligned, particularly as we near the end of the season.

Most Brothers & Sisters fans have probably already seen the stories about how Brothers & Sisters might be renewed for a shortened season at a reduced budget. While I mocked the way some of those stories were positioned, I’d guess it’s a case of where there’s that much smoke, there’s probably a fire. From what I can ferret out, it’ll likely be renewed unless the show’s producers say “eh, we’d rather move on to something else than do a lower budget shorter season.”  The chances the producers would actually say that seem pretty low, so I’ve upgraded Brothers & Sisters from more likely to be canceled than renewed all the way up to more likely to be renewed than canceled.

If it is renewed, it’s definitely a case where the economic models we have no access to that consider things other than commercial advertising revenue  trump the ratings. On a ratings basis alone, it seems like ABC should absolutely cancel it. The ratings are sure to be as bad, and probably worse, for any shortened final season.  It’s very rare to see an older show reverse its ratings declines. On top of that, ABC is likely to move it and use Desperate Housewives to launch a new show on Sundays at 10pm.  And anywhere I could imagine ABC would move it (e.g. Tuesdays at 10pm), I’d guess the ratings will go down.

Outsourced Upgraded

Like it or not, the combination of Outsourced’s short-term and long-term relative ratings say Outsourced is back on the bubble.

Too Soon?

As for Fringe, of course it’s too soon to put it on the bubble for next fall’s bubble watch, but it’s never too early to speculate about its fate! And with it pulling a preliminary1.2  adults 18-49 rating for its season three finale, the speculation has begun.

For anyone who missed it, Bones was renewed for a seventh season.

Show Network Status
My Generation ABC Canceled
The Whole Truth ABC Canceled
Chaos CBS Canceled
Medium CBS Canceled
Life Unexpected CW Canceled
Lone Star Fox Canceled
Running Wilde Fox Canceled
The Good Guys Fox Canceled
Chase NBC Canceled
Outlaw NBC Canceled
Perfect Couples NBC Canceled
The Cape NBC Canceled
The Paul Reiser Show NBC Canceled
Undercovers NBC Canceled
Detroit 1-8-7 ABC Certain Cancellation
No Ordinary Family ABC Certain Cancellation
Off The Map ABC Certain Cancellation
The Defenders CBS Certain Cancellation
Traffic Light Fox Certain Cancellation
The Event NBC Certain Cancellation
Better With You ABC Likely Cancellation
V ABC Likely Cancellation
$#*! My Dad Says CBS Likely Cancellation
Mad Love CBS Likely Cancellation
Hellcats CW Likely Cancellation
Human Target Fox Likely Cancellation
The Chicago Code Fox Likely Cancellation
Chuck NBC Likely Cancellation
Law & Order: Los Angeles NBC Likely Cancellation
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Mr. Sunshine ABC On The Bubble
Blue Bloods CBS On The Bubble
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
One Tree Hill CW On The Bubble
Breaking In Fox On The Bubble
Lie To Me Fox On The Bubble
Outsourced NBC On The Bubble
Body of Proof ABC Likely Renewal
Brothers & Sisters ABC Likely Renewal
CSI: Miami CBS Likely Renewal
Rules of Engagement CBS Likely Renewal
The Good Wife CBS Likely Renewal
Harry’s Law NBC Likely Renewal
Desperate Housewives ABC Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
The Mentalist CBS Certain Renewal
House Fox Certain Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Castle ABC Renewed
Cougar Town ABC Renewed
Grey’s Anatomy ABC Renewed
Modern Family ABC Renewed
Private Practice ABC Renewed
The Middle ABC Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
90210′ CW Renewed
Gossip Girl CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob’s Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Fringe Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
30 Rock NBC Renewed
Community NBC Renewed
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewed
The Office NBC Renewed
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewed, But…
Friday Night Lights NBC Final Season
Smallville CW Final Season
Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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