When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch seeks to prognosticate on what will happen by May. The two are still usually fairly closely aligned, particularly as we near the end of the season.
Most Brothers & Sisters fans have probably already seen the stories about how Brothers & Sisters might be renewed for a shortened season at a reduced budget. While I mocked the way some of those stories were positioned, I’d guess it’s a case of where there’s that much smoke, there’s probably a fire. From what I can ferret out, it’ll likely be renewed unless the show’s producers say “eh, we’d rather move on to something else than do a lower budget shorter season.” The chances the producers would actually say that seem pretty low, so I’ve upgraded Brothers & Sisters from more likely to be canceled than renewed all the way up to more likely to be renewed than canceled.
If it is renewed, it’s definitely a case where the economic models we have no access to that consider things other than commercial advertising revenue trump the ratings. On a ratings basis alone, it seems like ABC should absolutely cancel it. The ratings are sure to be as bad, and probably worse, for any shortened final season. It’s very rare to see an older show reverse its ratings declines. On top of that, ABC is likely to move it and use Desperate Housewives to launch a new show on Sundays at 10pm. And anywhere I could imagine ABC would move it (e.g. Tuesdays at 10pm), I’d guess the ratings will go down.
Like it or not, the combination of Outsourced’s short-term and long-term relative ratings say Outsourced is back on the bubble.
As for Fringe, of course it’s too soon to put it on the bubble for next fall’s bubble watch, but it’s never too early to speculate about its fate! And with it pulling a preliminary1.2 adults 18-49 rating for its season three finale, the speculation has begun.
For anyone who missed it, Bones was renewed for a seventh season.
|The Whole Truth||ABC||Canceled|
|The Good Guys||Fox||Canceled|
|The Paul Reiser Show||NBC||Canceled|
|Detroit 1-8-7||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|No Ordinary Family||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|Off The Map||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|The Defenders||CBS||Certain Cancellation|
|Traffic Light||Fox||Certain Cancellation|
|The Event||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|Better With You||ABC||Likely Cancellation|
|$#*! My Dad Says||CBS||Likely Cancellation|
|Mad Love||CBS||Likely Cancellation|
|Human Target||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|The Chicago Code||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|Law & Order: Los Angeles||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Happy Endings||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Mr. Sunshine||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior||CBS||On The Bubble|
|CSI: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Nikita||CW||On The Bubble|
|One Tree Hill||CW||On The Bubble|
|Breaking In||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Lie To Me||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Outsourced||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Body of Proof||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Brothers & Sisters||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|CSI: Miami||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|The Good Wife||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Harry’s Law||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Desperate Housewives||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|The Mentalist||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|
|The Cleveland Show||Fox||Renewed|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Renewed|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Renewed, But…|
|Friday Night Lights||NBC||Final Season|