Bubble Watch: “Chuck,” “Suspect Behavior,” “Happy Endings,” “Body of Proof” (and of course, “Fringe”) “Too Soon?” Edition

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch seeks to prognosticate on what will happen by May.  The two are still usually fairly closely aligned, particularly as we near the end of the season.

We’re in the home stretch with less than 5 weeks to go before the fall 2011 schedules are announced along with official renewals and de facto cancellations.

“Too soon?” is a relative concept, but here’s my take on some shows whose fates still aren’t crystal clear.

Chuck

Verdict: definitely not too soon to declare it likely to be canceled.  While I of course hope Chuck is renewed, please spare me any “Chuck is a consistent performer for NBC” nonsense. Consistently edging lower and setting new series lows isn’t the type of consistent performance that gets shows renewed!  Still, likely isn’t certain and, it’s Chuck so it seemingly has a puncher’s chance no matter what happens.

Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior

Verdict: oops, too soon! Was it too soon to move CMSB into “likely cancellation” territory last week?  Yes, yes it was. It rebounded by more than 20% on Wednesday to a 2.6 adults 18-49 rating. Is it too soon to move it all the way back to “likely renewal?”  Perhaps not, but I’m going conservative.  It’s back on the bubble, but if it continues to pull the kind of numbers it did on Wednesday it is certainly likely to be renewed.

The Paul Reiser Show

Verdict: it’s probably not too soon to declare its inevitable cancellation certain. But I’ll cut Paul Reiser some slack and give the show another week. For now, it debuts as a likely cancellation.

Happy Endings

Verdict: It’s too soon to predict anything.  I’m always cautious about comedies on ABC.  Yep, Happy Endings debuted a lot worse than Mr. Sunshine (2.8 adults 18-49 rating vs. a 3.7), but that doesn’t mean anything. Plus, against American Idol, its Modern Family lead-in was down to a season low excluding the night before Thanksgiving.  I make nothing much of its 10pm numbers this past Wednesday or that ABC has scheduled back-to-back episodes at 10pm on this coming Wednesday. ABC wants to see what comedy at 10pm does.  So far, an original Happy Endings and a repeat Modern Family did over 50% better than the finale of Off The Map. How will two Happy Endings at 10p with a Cougar Town lead-in do? My guess is a little worse than 10pm this past Wednesday, but still better than the Off The Map finale. Stay tuned.

Breaking In

Verdict: too soon-ish. Breaking In fell 26% from its premiere to a 2.6 adults 18-49 rating. While I’m not a fan of people bemoaning 50% retention out of an 8.0 that still yields a 4.0, 36% retention out of a 7.3 is…not likely to get the show renewed.  I’m going to leave  it on the bubble for now anyway. This Wednesday and the following Wednesday (4/27, by then Cougar Town will have been back in the timeslot for a couple of episodes) should tell the tale.

Body of Proof:

Verdict:  it’s not too soon to up it to likely renewal. So I have.

Fringe

On the heels of a series low 1.3 adults 18-49 on Friday (if it isn’t adjusted up in the finals), some people will surely ask, “Did Fox renew Fringe too soon?”  I have no doubt that @MaskedScheduler saw that rating coming from a mile away, so I have to conclude that Fox got a sweetheart deal from Warner Bros that inoculated them against those kind of ratings.  If that’s the case, it definitely was not too soon to renew it. If that’s not the case then perhaps more an issue of too “WTF are you CRAZY?!”

Someone suggested I try color coded shading. I tried it and didn’t like it. It won’t be back next week…

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